The Great Transformation of International Order and the Future of Chinese Economy
Prof. Gao Bai (Duke University)
PH 20. Hörsaal der Philosophischen Fakultät, Humboldtallee 19/21
27. May (Tuesday), 18:15-19:45
Abstract:
The international order established after World War II is currently experiencing a profound transformation. Many Chinese use 百年未有之大变局 （major changes unseen in a century）to describe the current situation.
What are the driving forces behind this great transformation?
In his newly published book titled 《把脉：全球巨变与中国经济》（Taking A Pulse：Global Transformation and the Chinese economy）, Bai Gao uses three long cycles of history, which include the pendulum movement of globalization, the cycle of hegemonic expansions, and technological revolution, to explain the drastic changes occurring in the international economic order and their profound impacts on the Chinese economy.
Bai Gao demonstrates that since China’s reform and opening up, the dynamics of development of the Chinese economy have changed twice, first to the world factory model focusing on external circulation by promoting export, and then shifted to a supply-side demand model emphasizing internal circulation sustained by government spending in infrastructure construction and private investment in real estate. With low birth rate and ageing population and mounting debts of local governments, these old strategies can no longer sustain economic growth. Bai Gao predicts a new model for the Chinese economy in the 21st century: 休养生息（rest and recuperate）by developing strong social protection programs, and 强筋壮骨 （strengthen muscles and bones）by upgrading industries and developing international competitiveness.
Speaker:
Gao Bai is a lifelong professor of sociology at Duke University. Professor Gao Bai graduated from Peking University in the 1980s and received a bachelor’s degree and a master’s degree. In 1994, he graduated from the Department of Sociology of Princeton University and received a doctorate in sociology.
Professor Gao Bai’s main research fields include economics and society, comparative history sociology, organizational theory, comparative political economy, international political economy and globalization.
Professor Gao Bai has been teaching at Duke University since graduation; has been a visiting scholar at the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Tokyo, the Department of Economics of the University of One Bridge, the School of International Business and Law of Yokohama National University, the Tokyo University of Economics and the Max Planck Institute of Social Studies in Cologne, Germany; has been a visiting professor at the University of Tokyo, Meiji University and Jacob University in Bremen, Germany, as a self-strengthening professor at the University of Shanghai and a lecture professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics; and has been the director and chief expert of the China High Speed Railway Development Strategy Research Center at Southwest Jiaotong University since June 2014.
Organizer:
Prof. Dominic Sachsenmaier, University of Göttingen